North Okanagan Market Recap: First Half of 2026
If you've been watching the headlines, you've probably seen the First Half sales numbers were down Year over Year. What you may not have seen is the story underneath them — and it's a little more complex than a simple "market is slowing" narrative.
The Listings Squeeze
Sales through the first half of 2026 were down 4.8% year over year. On its own, that's not a huge surprise in today's environment – wars, tariffs, Trump. But the more significant shift was on the supply side: new listings have dropped 15.3% over the same period. That's a much steeper decline than sales, and it's already starting to show up in overall inventory, which is now trending down as well.
If that continues, it could change the conversation for both buyers and sellers in the second half of the year.
The $1M+ Market is Quietly Having a Moment
While overall sales slowed, the story at the top of the market moved the other way. Sales of homes priced over $1 million were actually up year over year — 137 sales compared to 118 last year. Meanwhile, sales under $1 million declined, from 677 to 620.
The result: homes over $1 million made up 18.1% of all North Okanagan sales in the first half of 2026 — the highest share on record for any first-half period.
Could Prices Start To Climb
If we look at the Benchmark Selling Price for the overall market in June, prices increased 2% Year over Year. But the trend over the past 6 months has been increasing after decreasing through the second half of 2025. And when we look at the Average selling price for all the homes sold during the first half of 2026 vs the first half of 2025 prices increased 6.5%, even with slower sales volume. So could this be signaling the start of rising prices as we see buyer competition concentrated on a smaller pool of available listings?
What June Might Be Telling Us
So far in 2026, June was the only month with what I'd call decent sales activity so this may be a little premature. Nonetheless, my thoughts on how this could affect the market moving forward — and I want to be clear this is speculation, not a forecast — is that if the increased sales momentum that showed up in June carries into the second half of the year, and if inventory keeps shrinking the way it has been, we could start to see upward pressure on prices. That’s a lot of ifs, and there's nothing indicating that it will play out that way, but it's a dynamic worth watching closely.
The Bottom Line
The first half of 2026 wrapped up with a market that's more nuanced than the top-line sales number suggests. Fewer listings, tightening inventory, a resurgent $1M+ segment, and early signs of potential price pressure all point to a market that's shifting shape rather than simply slowing down. That's a shift worth noting, because for the past couple of years this market has been finicky and buyers have been patient. Could this be the first crack in that pattern?
If you're weighing a move in the second half of the year — whether buying, selling, or just trying to figure out what any of this means for your own situation — I'm happy to talk through the specifics.
Reach out. I’m always happy to talk real estate.
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