Market Bounces Back
Items of Note for October:
- 139 Unit Sales - Up from September's abysmal 98 sales, but the North Okanagan is still seeing below average sales brought in part by high interest rates and affordability challenges.
- Active Listings are finally back to normal - currently only 3% below the 10 Year Average
- The North Okanagan is back in a Balanced Market.
Unit Sales October's 139 Unit Sales was up 14% from last year (122) and up 42% from September (98), but we do need to keep these numbers in perspective. September sales were hampered by wildfires and travel bans. And if you look back to 2022 you will see that North Okanagan October sales were well below average. So, while sales did made a nice rebound, October's 139 sales is still 19 below the 10 year average of 171.
Median Sales Price
- Oct Median Selling Price was $631,500. $595,000. That is up significantly from Sept's $595,000 and 6% from Oct 2022 ($597,450).
Benchmark Price for Single Family homes and Townhomes rebound after 3 months of decline.
- Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in Oct was up 3.7% from Sept ($755,400 vs $728,100) and up 4.7% year-over-year ($721,500). 2023 Benchmark prices for Single Family homes peaked in June at $785,800 and have been on a slow decline since.
- Townhome prices also rebounded with a 2.7% increase from September ($564,700 vs $549,800) and were up 1% from 2022 ($558,800). The Benchmark Price for Townhomes peaked in June at $600,400.
- Condo prices were up 7.6% from Sept ($345,800 vs 321,500) and up from 2022 (306,600)
The number of Active Listings is up 24% from 2022 (838 vs 674) and is only 3% below the 10 year average of 865.
New Listings hitting the market were almost unchanged Year-over-Year (223 vs 221) which is about 9% over the 10 year average (205).
The overall North Okanagan market moved back into a Balanced Market after entering a Buyer's market in Sept.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 17% (up from 11% in Sept). Between 12-25% is considered a Balanced Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 62% (up from 37% in Sept). Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.
Days to Sell Average is a low 56 days. This is down from 70 in Sept and 59 in Oct 2022.
Central Okanagan
While Oct sales rebounded somewhat in the North Okanagan the Central Okanagan was not as lucky.
Sales continued to be slow in the Central Okanagan as well. October's 263 Unit Sales is 40% below the 10-year-average of 439 for Oct. If you recall last month sales were 43% below the 10-year-average.
Sept saw 761 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10-year-average of 674.
And the 2463 current Active Listings is 21% above the 10 year average of 2030.
With a Sales to Active Listings ratio of 11% and Sales to New Listings ratio of 35% the Central OK remains in a Buyer's Market.
The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,025,700 which is up 2% from Sept ($1,006,300).
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes decreased 3%, while Condo prices increased 7.5% from Sept.
Conclusion
Oct brought a nice rebound in sales after a very slow September. However the overall trend is still one of a slowing market - especially as we head into what is traditionally the slowest four months of the year for sales.
Prices, like sales, made a bit of a rebound from September, but overall prices have softened a bit since early summer.
Given that inventory is finally back where it should be and with slower than average sales we should expect the market to remain fairly flat until spring or until we start to hear of possible interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Speculation right now is that we shouldn't expect any cuts until the latter part of 2024.
Fixed rate mortgages continue to bounce around with bond prices but the trend lately has seen bond prices declining so it may be a good time to keep your eyes on fixed rate mortgages as they trend downward (for now).
Given the market, there may be some good opportunities for buyers through the winter months.
And for those people who can only buy a home subject to selling their current home this may be the best time to get into the market. If demand is as pent up as the experts say, once it looks like interest rates are ready to come down it may be too late to buy subject to selling.
