Market Bounces Back

Items of Note for October:

• 139 Unit Sales - Up from September's abysmal 98 sales, but the North Okanagan is still seeing below average sales brought in part by high interest rates and affordability challenges. 
• Active Listings are finally back to normal - currently only 3% below the 10 Year Average   
• The North Okanagan is back in a Balanced Market.

Unit Sales October's 139 Unit Sales was up 14% from last year (122) and up 42% from September (98), but we do need to keep these numbers in perspective. September sales were hampered by wildfires and travel bans.  And if you look back to 2022 you will see that North Okanagan October sales were well below average.  So, while sales did made a nice rebound, October's 139 sales is still 19 below the 10 year average of 171.

Median Sales Price

• Oct Median Selling Price was $631,500.  $595,000.  That is up significantly from Sept's $595,000 and 6% from Oct 2022 ($597,450).

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes and Townhomes rebound after 3 months of decline.

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in Oct was up 3.7% from Sept ($755,400 vs $728,100) and up 4.7% year-over-year ($721,500).  2023 Benchmark prices for Single Family homes peaked in June at $785,800 and have been on a slow decline since.
• Townhome prices also rebounded with a 2.7% increase from September ($564,700 vs $549,800) and were up 1% from 2022 ($558,800).  The Benchmark Price for Townhomes peaked in June at $600,400.
• Condo prices were up 7.6% from Sept ($345,800 vs 321,500) and up from 2022 (306,600)

The number of Active Listings is up 24% from 2022 (838 vs 674) and is only 3% below the 10 year average of 865.

New Listings hitting the market were almost unchanged Year-over-Year (223 vs 221) which is about 9% over the 10 year average (205).

The overall North Okanagan market moved back into a Balanced Market after entering a Buyer's market in Sept.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 17% (up from 11% in Sept). Between 12-25% is considered a Balanced Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 62% (up from 37% in Sept).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average is a low 56 days.  This is down from 70 in Sept and 59 in Oct 2022.


Central Okanagan

While Oct sales rebounded somewhat in the North Okanagan the Central Okanagan was not as lucky. 
Sales continued to be slow in the Central Okanagan as well.  October's 263 Unit Sales is 40% below the 10-year-average of 439 for Oct. If you recall last month sales were 43% below the 10-year-average.

Sept saw 761 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10-year-average of 674. 

And the 2463 current Active Listings is 21% above the 10 year average of 2030.

With a Sales to Active Listings ratio of 11% and Sales to New Listings ratio of 35% the Central OK remains in a Buyer's Market.  

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,025,700 which is up 2% from Sept ($1,006,300).
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes decreased 3%, while Condo prices increased 7.5% from Sept.

Conclusion

Oct brought a nice rebound in sales after a very slow September.  However the overall trend is still one of a slowing market - especially as we head into what is traditionally the slowest four months of the year for sales. 

Prices, like sales, made a bit of a rebound from September, but overall prices have softened a bit since early summer.  

Given that inventory is finally back where it should be and with slower than average sales we should expect the market to remain fairly flat until spring or until we start to hear of possible interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.  Speculation right now is that we shouldn't expect any cuts until the latter part of 2024. 

Fixed rate mortgages continue to bounce around with bond prices but the trend lately has seen bond prices declining so it may be a good time to keep your eyes on fixed rate mortgages as they trend downward (for now).

Given the market, there may be some good opportunities for buyers through the winter months. 

And for those people who can only buy a home subject to selling their current home this may be the best time to get into the market.  If demand is as pent up as the experts say, once it looks like interest rates are ready to come down it may be too late to buy subject to selling. 
  

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OUCH!  A Slowing Market and Forest Fires Hit Market Hard

Items of Note for September:

• Only 98 Unit Sales - If we go back all the way to 2002 the only Sept with lower sales was in 2008 (88).
• Active Listings are finally getting back to normal - only 8% below the 10 Year Average   
• The overall North Okanagan market entered into a Buyers Market.

Unit Sales With only 98 Unit Sales Sept was down 18% from last year (120) and was 42% below the 10 Year Average of 169 Unit Sales.  Sept sales were also down significantly from Aug sales (98 vs146).  And if we go back all the way to 2002 the only Sept with lower sales was in 2008 (88).

Median Sales Price

• Sept Median Selling Price was $595,000.  That is up slightly from Aug's $592,500 but down 3% from Sept 2022 ($615,000).

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes and Townhomes down 3 months in a row .

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in Sept was down 4.5% from Aug ($728,100 vs $763,100) and down slightly from 2022 ($728,100). 
• Townhome prices were down 4.6% from Aug ($549,800 vs $576,400).  The $549,800 is lower then the previous 21 month low of $551,100 in January (which seems highly questionable based on current selling prices so possibly a misprint).
• Condo prices were down 8% from Aug ($321,500 vs 350,400) and down slightly from 2022 ($321,500)

The number of Active Listings is up 25% from 2022 (903 vs 720) and is only 8% below the 10 year average of 982.

New Listings hitting the market were up 19% Year-over-Year (268 vs 225) and up 11% over the 10 year average (242).

The overall North Okanagan market has slipped into a Buyer's Market.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 11% (down from 17% in Aug). Between 12-25% is considered a Balanced Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 37% (down from 56% in Aug).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average is a low 70 days.  While this is up from 59 in Aug and 48 in Sept 2022 the Days to Sell average is still quite low historically.


Central Okanagan

Sales continued to be slow in the Central Okanagan as well.  Sept's 264 Unit Sales is 43% below the 10 year average of 465 for Sept.  Both Sept and Aug saw10-year lows for Unit Sales for their respective months.

Sept saw 956 New Listings hit the market (a ten year high for the month of Sept) which is 22% above the 10 year average of 785. 

And the 2516 current Active Listings is 14% above the 10 year average of 2214.

With a Sales to Active Listings ratio of 10% and Sales to New Listings ratio of 28% the Central OK is in a Buyer's Market.  

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,006,300 which is down 6% from Aug ($1,068,600).
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes decreased 3%, while Condo prices decreased 8% from August.

Conclusion

September brought very slow sales and plenty of new listings.  In the North Okanagan that translated into Active Listing levels almost getting back to normal (which has been a long time coming).  And the Benchmark Price for Single Family homes continued to soften since peaking in June (down about 7%). 

In the Central Okanagan the number of Active Listings is well above average while Single Family home prices finally cooled down after being in the $1,050,000 - $1,070,000 range since April.

How much were September numbers influenced by all the wildfires in the area?  The market had been slowing down since June, however it does appear that wildfires, smoke and travel bans to Okanagan likely had a major impact on the real estate market.  October should give us a better understanding of how much of the slow down were market driven and how much was due to fires.

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After a Strong June Sales Slow in July

Items of Note for July:

• Unit sales slow down considerably from June (152 vs 210).  July 2023 hits 10 year low for July unit sales.  Unit Sales 26% below the 10 year average (205).
• Median Sales Price up 3% year-over-year but down from June 2023.
• Benchmark Sales Price for Single Family homes, Townhomes and Condos all down slightly from June 2023.
• The overall North Okanagan market back into a Balanced Market.

Unit Sales With only 152 Unit Sales July was 26% below the 10 Year Average of 205 Unit Sales.  And the 152 Unit Sales for the month is a 10 year low for July sales.

Median Sales Prices for the overall North Okanagan market was up year-over-year but was down slightly from June.  

• July Median Selling Price $637,000.  That is down from June's $649,950.  It is the lowest Median Selling Price since March 2023.

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes finally sees a small decline after increasing every month since January .

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in July was $778,300 - Down 1% from $785,800 in June.
• At $342,100 the Benchmark Price for Condos decreased 3% from June ($354,100). 
• Townhomes decreased less then half a percent from June. ($598,300 vs $600,400) 
   

The number of Active Listings is up 16% from 2022 (839 vs 722) but the number is still historically low and currently sits about 19% below the 10 year average of 1037 active listings for July. 

New Listings hitting the market were down 12% Year-over-Year (267 vs 302) and sits about 9% below the 10 year average of 295.

The overall North Okanagan market is now back into a Balanced Market after briefly moving into a Sellers Market in June.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 18% (down from 26% in June). Above 20-25% is considered a Sellers Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 56% (down from 67% in June).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average remains unchanged at a low 55 days.


Central Okanagan

Sales slowed down in the Central Okanagan as well.  July's 408 Unit Sales is 23% below the 10 year average of 527 for July.  It was also a significant drop from June's 504 sales.

June saw 995 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10 year average of 882.  And the 2446 Active Listings, is 4% above the 10 year average of 2346.  So the Central Okanagan continues to be one of the few areas that of hasn't really been effected by low inventory levels.

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,063,700 which is unchanged from June
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes Benchmark Prices dropped 2% while Condos dropped just over 3%.

Conclusion

After a strong June for sale figures it appears that July has taken some wind out of the sails (sales).  June is typically the strongest month for sales so seeing a decline month-to-month from here to the end of the year should not come as a surprise. 

It does appear that price increases have flattened out the past couple months.

The key numbers moving forward, for the North Okanagan, is how much below the 10 year average sales and new listings remain and what effect this has on prices. 

And also what happens with interest rates (up, down or unchanged) as we move through the second half of the year.

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If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell and need help don't hesitate to call, txt or email.?  My door is always open.

Sales stats thru the first half of 2023 illustrate how resilient the North Okanagan real estate market has been.

Even though the Unit Sales and Sales Dollar Volume are way down compared to the same time frame last year, the market continues to surprise, as we have seen a 20% increase in the Median Sale Price since the start of the year.

So what about all that noise we were hearing last year, from the “EXPERTS”, who were saying it was a bad time to buy a home?  Hmmmm

So looking forward, is it still/now a bad time to buy?  Especially with the interest rate hikes we have seen recently.  Obviously a lot depends on your financial situation and affordability etc. But if you can get into the market and don’t plan on making a move for a number of years the odds of prices being up compared to down are pretty damn good.

There is risk in every market.  But there can be reward in every market.

June Sees Strong Sales in North Okanagan

Items of Note for June:

• Home Sales Surge - after a sluggish spring market the summer market kicks off with a bang as sales almost hit the 10 year average for first time since February. 
• Prices continues to rise - Single Family Benchmark Prices down only 3% from peak.  Condo Benchmark Price hits new all-time high.
• The overall North Okanagan market entered into a Seller's Market.

Unit Sales With 210 Unit Sales June was only 4% below the 10 Year Average of 219 Unit Sales.  And the 210 Unit Sales was 15% higher then last year's 183 sales (this marks the first time that Year-over-Year sales increased since November 2021).

Average and Median Sales Prices for the overall North Okanagan market were up slightly from May and have been trending upwards since December.  

• June Average Selling Price $708,7606.  Up from $689,626 in May but down from $768,153 last June.
• June Median Selling Price $649,950.  Up slightly from 641,600 in May and virtually the same as last June's $650,000.

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes has increased every month since hitting a low in January.

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in June was $785,800 - Up from $777,600 in May.  The Benchmark price for single family homes has increased 13% since bottoming out in January ($696,500).  $785,800 is the highest the Benchmark price for single family homes has been since June 2022 ($798,500) and is only 2.7% below the peak price in May 2022* ($807,600).
• At $354,100 the Benchmark Price for Condos broke an all-time high.  The previous high was $353,400 in April 2022*.   
  
  *The formula to determine Benchmark Price was changed in June 2022.

The number of Active Listings is up 22% from 2022 (815 vs 666) but the number is still historically low and currently sits about 21% below the 10 year average of 1035 active listings for June. 

New Listings hitting the market were down 12% Year-over-Year (315 vs 359) but were only about 8% below the 10 year average of 341.

The overall North Okanagan market has now entered Seller's Market territory.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 26% (up from 22% in May). Above 20-25% is considered a Sellers Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is .67% (up from 51% in May).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average remains low remains low at 55 days.

Overall, the North Okanagan market continues to be quite resistant.  The market for single family homes in the lower price ranges has really heated up.  But we are seeing sales across all price ranges and property types.  The big question is how will interest rates - if they continue to rise - effect sales and prices as we head into the dog days of summer?


Central Okanagan

Junes 504 Unit Sales were only 10% below the 10 year average of 563 for June and were 31% above last year's 386 sales.  However, sales did drop 9% from May's 556 sales. 

June saw 1142 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10 year average of 1008.  And the 2284 Active Listings, is only 2% below the 10 year average of 2336.  So the Central Okanagan continues to be one of the few areas that of hasn't really been effected by low inventory levels.

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,063,800 which is down slightly from May's $1,048,900 and 6% below the April 2022* peak price of $1,131,800. 
Townhome Benchmark Prices were the second highest on record - only trailing May 2022* ($785,900 vs $829,800).

*The formula to determine Benchmark Price was changed in June 2022.


Interest Rates

July 12 is the date for the next Bank of Canada announcement on interest rates and the betting money is that rates will increase another 0.25% at that time - taking the overnight rate to 5% which would be a new 22 year high.

If rates do rise again will that be the be enough to slow down home sales?  And probably more to the point, will increased rates be enough to slow down rising home prices?  

Stay tuned.

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New Listings Finally Arrive but Continued Sluggish Sales

Items of Note for May:

• New Listings Arrive - The 352 New Listings in May is only 2% below the 10 year average of 361.  A welcome relief after well below average New Listings hitting the market since February.
• Continued Sluggish Home Sales - the only May with fewer Unit Sales in the past 10 years was 2020. 
• The overall North Okanagan market is currently in a Balanced Market.
• Single Family Home prices continue to rise.  The Benchmark Price for detached Single Family homes continues upwards - Up 11.6% since January.

Unit Sales With 179 Unit Sales May was16% below the 10 Year Average of 213 Unit Sales.  Year-to-Date Unit Sales are 22% below the 10 Year Average (610 vs 785).  May thru August are, on average, the months that see the most sales so the next few months should go a long way to determine what sales for the year will look like.  

Average and Median Sales Prices for the overall North Okanagan market dropped from April numbers.  But the overall trend has been moving upwards since December.  

• May Average Selling Price $689,626.  Down from $726,274 in April and down from $727,925 last May.
• May Median Selling Price $641,600.  Down from 646,750 in April and down from $671,500 last May.

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes has increased every month since hitting a low in January.

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in May was $777,600 - Up from $764,400 in April.  The Benchmark price for single family homes has increased 11.6% since bottoming out in January ($696,500 vs $777,600).  $777,600 is the highest the Benchmark price for single family homes has been since June 2022 ($798,500) and is only 3.7% below the peak price in May 2022 ($807,600)

The number of Active Listings continues to rise (+43% from 2022) overall, but it is still historically low.  Back in January it looked like we were on our way back up to normal inventory levels but with three months (Feb, March, April) of well below average new listings hitting the market inventory remained about 22% below the 10 year average thru April.  With the uptick in New Listings coming out in May inventory did improve, and currently sits about 19% below the 10 year average for the month of May (799 actual vs 995).

Overall we are currently in a Balanced Market.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 22% (up from 21% in March). Above 20-25% is considered a Sellers Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 43% (down from 54% in March).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average remains low remains low at 59 days.  While sales may be slow buyers are quick to act on homes that are priced correctly.  There are motivated buyers in the market - just not a lot of them.

So, overall the North Okanagan market continues to be quite resistant.  The market for single family homes in the lower price ranges has really heated up.  But we are seeing sales across all price ranges and property types.


Central Okanagan

Overall Year-to-Date Unit Sales are down in the Central Okanagan approx18.5% over the 10-year average (1829 vs 2246).  However, sales did rebound nicely in May coming in less then 5% below the 10 year average (556 vs 584) making May the first "decent" month of sales of the year for the Central Okanagan.

Year-to-Date New Listings are only 3% below the 10 year average (4072 vs 4197).

With 2072 Active Listings, the Central Okanagan is only 7% below the 10 year average of 2230 Active Listings for the month of May.

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,048,900 which is down slightly from April's $1,051,100 and 7% below the April 2022 peak price of $1,131,800.


Interest Rates

The big news is the Bank of Canada announcement and how this may affect the housing market moving into the second half of the year.  We may see an initial surge in sales as people who are pre-approved take advantage of the lower rate.  On the other end of the spectrum we may see would be buyers pull out of the market as the uncertainty around interest rates is, again, going to play a key role in real estate markets.

I've been talking about a possible Dead Cat Bounce the past couple months.  Given this latest interest rate hike we may finally see that happen.  Add to that a dry, smoky summer and...

Stay tuned.

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If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell and need help don't hesitate to call, txt or email.?  My door is always open. 

Slow Sales but Rising Prices

Items of Note for April:

• Slow Home Sales - the only April with fewer Unit Sales in the past 10 years was 2020.
• No New Listings - since 2003 the only years with fewer New Listings hitting the market were 2003 & 2020.
• Currently in a Balanced Market but close to becoming a Sellers Market.
• Selling Price continue to trend upwards.

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