Despite Lower Interest Rates Slow Sales Continue

North Okanagan Items of Note for August:

• Sales hit 10 year low for the month of August and finish the month 26% below the 10 Year Average (138 vs 186)  
• Average Selling Price up 13% Year-over-Year - spurred on by a strong month for homes selling in the $1,000,000+ price range. 
• The North Okanagan market continues to be in a Balanced Market.

Sales

North Okanagan Unit Sales were down 6% Year-over-Year (138 vs 146) and are 26% below the 10 Year average (186).  
It was also the lowest number of sales recorded for the month of Aug over the past 10 years.  

Median Sales Price

• Median Selling Price was $644,500 which is up 9% Year-over-Year ($592,500) and is up from July ($639,000).  

Average Sales Price

• Average Selling Price was $748,629 which is up a substantial 13% Year-over-Year ($664,813) and also up from July ($656,254).  

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Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

North Okanagan Items of Note for June:

• June Unit Sales slow after a solid May.  June's 170 Unit Sales are down 18% Year-over-Year and 21% below the 10-Year average.  
• Prices down from May.  After seeing record high Median and Average selling prices in May, prices in June take a tumble with Median Selling price down 9% from May and Average Selling price down 11% from May.  Benchmark Prices for all property types were down from May and down Year-over-Year as well.
• The North Okanagan market continues to be in a Balanced Market

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North Okanagan Market Continues To Improve

North Okanagan Items of Note for May:

• Unit Sales continue to rebound.  May's 183 sales is only 12% below the 10-Year average.   While sales were only up 3% Year-over-Year, the market has improved steadily since a very slow March. 
• Active Listings tops 1,000 for first time since Sept 2019.
• Prices continue to rise - the North Okanagan just had the highest median selling price and average selling price ever for the month of May.  And the Benchmark Price for the overall North Okanagan market has been climbing steadily since the start of the year, hitting its highest mark since August 2023.
• Overall the North Okanagan market moves into a Balanced Market.
• Bank of Canada begins to lower interest rates.

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Sales Still Slow But Much Better Than March

North Okanagan Items of Note for April:

• Unit Sales make nice rebound after abysmal March sales (143 from 91). 
• Inventory finally reaches pre-pandemic levels as Active Listings inch above 10-Year Average.
• Overall North Okanagan market on the cusp between Buyer's and Balanced Market.

Conclusion

Sales make a nice rebound from March's very low numbers - even though sales remain about 25% below the 10-Year average.  

Prices are wavering but continue to be fairly flat.

Inventory in the North Okanagan finally back to pre-pandemic levels as we see new listings above the 10-Year average.

It does appear that many would-be buyers are still waiting to hear that interest rates are coming down.  And with all the uncertainty that is out there who can blame them.  Affordability is still an issue for many buyers.   

And just like last month it continues to be a good opportunity for those people who are looking to buy subject to selling their current home.  In the past few months we have seen many offers/contracts coming in subject to the Buyer selling their home.

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Ouch

North Okanagan Items of Note for January:

• Unit Sales take a dive Year-over-Year (91 vs 131). 
• Both North Okanagan and Central Okanagan hit 10-Year lows for March unit sales.
• Overall North Okanagan market moves from Balanced Market back to a Buyer's Market.

North Okanagan Unit Sales were down 31% Year-over-Year (91 vs 131).  Sales were also down slightly from February (94), which is quite unusual given that March is the transition into the spring market.  March 2024 unit sales were 46% below the 10-Year Average of 169 unit sales (and 43% below the 23-Year average of 160).

It was a 10-year low for unit sales and over the past 23 years only 2009 saw fewer sales for the month of March (86)

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Much Like February 2023 

North Okanagan Items of Note for January:

• Prices up Year-over-Year.  Depending on the metric used pricing was flat or up slightly Year-over-Year.  The only negative growth was the Benchmark Price for townhomes which was down approximately 5% Year-over-Year
• Unit Sales pretty much unchanged from 2023 (94 vs 95)
• New Listings up significantly from last year - Active listings now only 3% below 10-year average
• Overall North Okanagan market moves from Buyer's Market back to a Balanced Market.

North Okanagan Unit Sales were down 1% Year-over-Year (94 vs 95) but up 54% from January (61) - which is to be expected as we head towards the spring market.  February 2024 unit sales were 20% below the 10-Year Average of 118 unit sales (and 19% below the 23-Year average of 116).

One interesting item of note: If we omitted the years 2021 and 2022 (the peak of COVID sales) the revised 8-year average falls to 104 which would put February 2024 only 10% below average.  There is no denying that sales are slow, but looked at in this with this new slant they're not quite as slow as the ten year average would suggest.

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A Typical January - Just Slower

North Okanagan Items of Note for January:

• Median Sales Price up Year-over-Year but down big from December's huge gains 
• Unit Sales up 11% Year-over-Year but 32% below 10 Year average
• Overall North Okanagan market moves from Balanced Market to a Buyer's Market

While North Okanagan Unit Sales were up 11% Year-over-Year (61 vs 55), sales are still quite sluggish.  In the past 10 years, in the North Okanagan, only last year saw fewer sales (55) for the month of January.  January 2024 unit sales were 32% below the 10-Year Average of 90 unit sales and 31% below the 23-Year Average of 88 unit sales. 

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• Yearly unit sales hit 10 year low
• Bank of Canada overnight rates starts year at 4.25%, ends at 5%
• Prices up and down (and up?) but all things considered remain surprisingly resilient
• House inventory finally back to normal levels
• 2023 ends in a Balanced Market

Unit Sales

• Total Unit Sales for the year were down 17% from 2022 (1516 vs 1826) 
• Sales 23% below the 10 Year Average (1516 vs 1971)
• 2023 hits 10 year low for Unit Sales

While recording a 10 year low in unit sales may seem unsettling, it probably shouldn't be too surprising given:

• How hot the market was from mid 2020 to March 2022
• How much and how quickly interest rates rose - the central bank raised interest rates 10 times between March, 2022 and July, 2023, bringing its benchmark rate from 0.25% to 5.00% in one of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening campaigns on record.

To give 2023 sales totals a bit of perspective consider that during the 6-year period right before 2014 (2008 thru 2013) yearly sales totals were all lower than the 1516 sales recorded in 2023 (1315, 1462, 1324, 1187, 1308, 1401). 

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Out With A Whimper - Sort Of 

North Okanagan Items of Note for December:

• Sales Prices get a little weird
• Sales remain sluggish - lowest Dec Unit Sales since 2012
• The North Okanagan remains in a Balanced Market.

While North Okanagan Unit Sales were only down slightly Year-over-Year (59 vs 63) sales are still very sluggish with Dec 2023 coming in 39% below the 10-Year Average of 97 Unit Sales.  The last time we saw sales this slow was in 2012 when only 50 Unit Sales were recorded.  Going all the way back to 2002 only 2012, 2010 (55 sales) and 2008 (39 sales) saw fewer sales than 2023.

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Market Bounces Back

Items of Note for October:

• 139 Unit Sales - Up from September's abysmal 98 sales, but the North Okanagan is still seeing below average sales brought in part by high interest rates and affordability challenges. 
• Active Listings are finally back to normal - currently only 3% below the 10 Year Average   
• The North Okanagan is back in a Balanced Market.

Unit Sales October's 139 Unit Sales was up 14% from last year (122) and up 42% from September (98), but we do need to keep these numbers in perspective. September sales were hampered by wildfires and travel bans.  And if you look back to 2022 you will see that North Okanagan October sales were well below average.  So, while sales did made a nice rebound, October's 139 sales is still 19 below the 10 year average of 171.

Median Sales Price

• Oct Median Selling Price was $631,500.  $595,000.  That is up significantly from Sept's $595,000 and 6% from Oct 2022 ($597,450).

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes and Townhomes rebound after 3 months of decline.

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in Oct was up 3.7% from Sept ($755,400 vs $728,100) and up 4.7% year-over-year ($721,500).  2023 Benchmark prices for Single Family homes peaked in June at $785,800 and have been on a slow decline since.
• Townhome prices also rebounded with a 2.7% increase from September ($564,700 vs $549,800) and were up 1% from 2022 ($558,800).  The Benchmark Price for Townhomes peaked in June at $600,400.
• Condo prices were up 7.6% from Sept ($345,800 vs 321,500) and up from 2022 (306,600)

The number of Active Listings is up 24% from 2022 (838 vs 674) and is only 3% below the 10 year average of 865.

New Listings hitting the market were almost unchanged Year-over-Year (223 vs 221) which is about 9% over the 10 year average (205).

The overall North Okanagan market moved back into a Balanced Market after entering a Buyer's market in Sept.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 17% (up from 11% in Sept). Between 12-25% is considered a Balanced Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 62% (up from 37% in Sept).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average is a low 56 days.  This is down from 70 in Sept and 59 in Oct 2022.


Central Okanagan

While Oct sales rebounded somewhat in the North Okanagan the Central Okanagan was not as lucky. 
Sales continued to be slow in the Central Okanagan as well.  October's 263 Unit Sales is 40% below the 10-year-average of 439 for Oct. If you recall last month sales were 43% below the 10-year-average.

Sept saw 761 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10-year-average of 674. 

And the 2463 current Active Listings is 21% above the 10 year average of 2030.

With a Sales to Active Listings ratio of 11% and Sales to New Listings ratio of 35% the Central OK remains in a Buyer's Market.  

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,025,700 which is up 2% from Sept ($1,006,300).
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes decreased 3%, while Condo prices increased 7.5% from Sept.

Conclusion

Oct brought a nice rebound in sales after a very slow September.  However the overall trend is still one of a slowing market - especially as we head into what is traditionally the slowest four months of the year for sales. 

Prices, like sales, made a bit of a rebound from September, but overall prices have softened a bit since early summer.  

Given that inventory is finally back where it should be and with slower than average sales we should expect the market to remain fairly flat until spring or until we start to hear of possible interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.  Speculation right now is that we shouldn't expect any cuts until the latter part of 2024. 

Fixed rate mortgages continue to bounce around with bond prices but the trend lately has seen bond prices declining so it may be a good time to keep your eyes on fixed rate mortgages as they trend downward (for now).

Given the market, there may be some good opportunities for buyers through the winter months. 

And for those people who can only buy a home subject to selling their current home this may be the best time to get into the market.  If demand is as pent up as the experts say, once it looks like interest rates are ready to come down it may be too late to buy subject to selling. 
  

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