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May Market Snapshot

North Okanagan Market Continues To Improve

North Okanagan Items of Note for May:

  • Unit Sales continue to rebound.  May's 183 sales is only 12% below the 10-Year average.   While sales were only up 3% Year-over-Year, the market has improved steadily since a very slow March. 
  • Active Listings tops 1,000 for first time since Sept 2019.
  • Prices continue to rise - the North Okanagan just had the highest median selling price and average selling price ever for the month of May.  And the Benchmark Price for the overall North Okanagan market has been climbing steadily since the start of the year, hitting its highest mark since August 2023.
  • Overall the North Okanagan market moves into a Balanced Market.
  • Bank of Canada begins to lower interest rates.

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April Market Snapshot

Sales Still Slow But Much Better Than March

North Okanagan Items of Note for April:

  • Unit Sales make nice rebound after abysmal March sales (143 from 91). 
  • Inventory finally reaches pre-pandemic levels as Active Listings inch above 10-Year Average.
  • Overall North Okanagan market on the cusp between Buyer's and Balanced Market.
 

Conclusion

Sales make a nice rebound from March's very low numbers - even though sales remain about 25% below the 10-Year average.  

Prices are wavering but continue to be fairly flat.

Inventory in the North Okanagan finally back to pre-pandemic levels as we see new listings above the 10-Year average.

It does appear that many would-be buyers are still waiting to hear that interest rates are coming down.  And with all the uncertainty that is out there who can blame them.  Affordability is still an issue for many buyers.   

And just like last month it continues to be a good opportunity for those people who are looking to buy subject to selling their current home.  In the past few months we have seen many offers/contracts coming in subject to the Buyer selling their home.

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March Market Snapshot

Ouch

North Okanagan Items of Note for January:

  • Unit Sales take a dive Year-over-Year (91 vs 131). 
  • Both North Okanagan and Central Okanagan hit 10-Year lows for March unit sales.
  • Overall North Okanagan market moves from Balanced Market back to a Buyer's Market.


North Okanagan Unit Sales were down 31% Year-over-Year (91 vs 131).  Sales were also down slightly from February (94), which is quite unusual given that March is the transition into the spring market.  March 2024 unit sales were 46% below the 10-Year Average of 169 unit sales (and 43% below the 23-Year average of 160).

It was a 10-year low for unit sales and over the past 23 years only 2009 saw fewer sales for the month of March (86)

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February Market Snapshot

Much Like February 2023 

North Okanagan Items of Note for January:

  • Prices up Year-over-Year.  Depending on the metric used pricing was flat or up slightly Year-over-Year.  The only negative growth was the Benchmark Price for townhomes which was down approximately 5% Year-over-Year
  • Unit Sales pretty much unchanged from 2023 (94 vs 95)
  • New Listings up significantly from last year - Active listings now only 3% below 10-year average
  • Overall North Okanagan market moves from Buyer's Market back to a Balanced Market.


North Okanagan Unit Sales were down 1% Year-over-Year (94 vs 95) but up 54% from January (61) - which is to be expected as we head towards the spring market.  February 2024 unit sales were 20% below the 10-Year Average of 118 unit sales (and 19% below the 23-Year average of 116).

One interesting item of note: If we omitted the years 2021 and 2022 (the peak of COVID sales) the revised 8-year average falls to 104 which would put February 2024 only 10% below average.  There is no denying that sales are slow, but looked at in this with this new slant they're not quite as slow as the ten year average would suggest.


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January Market Snapshot

A Typical January - Just Slower

North Okanagan Items of Note for January:

  • Median Sales Price up Year-over-Year but down big from December's huge gains 
  • Unit Sales up 11% Year-over-Year but 32% below 10 Year average
  • Overall North Okanagan market moves from Balanced Market to a Buyer's Market


While North Okanagan Unit Sales were up 11% Year-over-Year (61 vs 55), sales are still quite sluggish.  In the past 10 years, in the North Okanagan, only last year saw fewer sales (55) for the month of January.  January 2024 unit sales were 32% below the 10-Year Average of 90 unit sales and 31% below the 23-Year Average of 88 unit sales. 

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2023 Year in Review
2023 Year In Review
  • Yearly unit sales hit 10 year low
  • Bank of Canada overnight rates starts year at 4.25%, ends at 5%
  • Prices up and down (and up?) but all things considered remain surprisingly resilient
  • House inventory finally back to normal levels
  • 2023 ends in a Balanced Market

Unit Sales

  • Total Unit Sales for the year were down 17% from 2022 (1516 vs 1826) 
  • Sales 23% below the 10 Year Average (1516 vs 1971)
  • 2023 hits 10 year low for Unit Sales


While recording a 10 year low in unit sales may seem unsettling, it probably shouldn't be too surprising given:

  • How hot the market was from mid 2020 to March 2022
  • How much and how quickly interest rates rose - the central bank raised interest rates 10 times between March, 2022 and July, 2023, bringing its benchmark rate from 0.25% to 5.00% in one of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening campaigns on record.

To give 2023 sales totals a bit of perspective consider that during the 6-year period right before 2014 (2008 thru 2013) yearly sales totals were all lower than the 1516 sales recorded in 2023 (1315, 1462, 1324, 1187, 1308, 1401). 

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December Market Snapshot

Out With A Whimper - Sort Of 

North Okanagan Items of Note for December:

  • Sales Prices get a little weird
  • Sales remain sluggish - lowest Dec Unit Sales since 2012
  • The North Okanagan remains in a Balanced Market.


While North Okanagan Unit Sales were only down slightly Year-over-Year (59 vs 63) sales are still very sluggish with Dec 2023 coming in 39% below the 10-Year Average of 97 Unit Sales.  The last time we saw sales this slow was in 2012 when only 50 Unit Sales were recorded.  Going all the way back to 2002 only 2012, 2010 (55 sales) and 2008 (39 sales) saw fewer sales than 2023.

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November Market Snapshot

More of the Same

North Okanagan Items of Note for November:

  • 103 Unit Sales - Up 4 Sales Year-over-Year, but well below the 10 Year Average of 134.
  • Prices - for the most part - continue to soften since early summer.  
  • The North Okanagan is in a Balanced Market.


Unit Sales While North Okanagan Unit Sales were up slightly Year-over-Year (103 vs 99) sales are still sluggish compared to the 10-Year Average of 134 Unit Sales and even the 21-Year Average of 121 Unit Sales.





Median Sales Price

  • Nov Median Selling Price was $587,200.  That is down from Oct's $631,500 but unchanged Year-over-Year ($587,200 vs $588,000).


Benchmark Price after a bounce-back month in Oct for all product types the Benchmark Prices declined across the board in Nov.

  • While Townhome prices were only down slightly Year-over-Year, Nov's $545,100 is the lowest Benchmark price for Townhome's since April 2022.


New Listings hitting the market were down slightly Year-over-Year (146 vs 159) which is about 9% below the 10 year average (161).

Active Listings are up 22% from 2022 (740 vs 607) and are only 5% below the 10 year average of 780.

The overall North Okanagan market continues to be in a Balanced Market.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 14% (down from 17% in Oct). Between 12-25% is considered a Balanced Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 71% (up from 62% in Oct).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average is 61 days.  This is up from 56 in Sept and 55 in Nov 2022.


Central Okanagan

Unit Sales in the Central Okanagan continues to be very slow.  If you recall October sales were 40% below the ten-year average and Sept was 43% below the ten-year average.  November's 230 sales is 38% below the ten-year average of 372 and 9% below last year's 252 sales.

November saw 657 New Listings hit the market (up from 500 last year) which is a ten-year high and also 11% above the 10-year-average of 592. 

And the 2403 current Active Listings is 27% above the ten-year average of 1892.

With a Sales to Active Listings ratio of 10% and Sales to New Listings ratio of 35% the Central OK remains in a Buyer's Market.  

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes is $971,300 (down 3% from $1,025,700 in Oct).  This is the first time the Benchmark Price for single family homes in the Central Okanagan has fallen below the $1,000,000 mark since February 2023.
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes increased 2%, while Condo prices decreased 4% from Oct.

Conclusion

The overall trend is still one of a slowing market - especially as we head into what is traditionally the slowest four months of the year for sales. 

Given that inventory is finally back where it should be and with slower than average sales we should expect the market to remain fairly flat until spring or until we start to hear of possible interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.  Speculation right now is that we shouldn't expect any cuts until the latter part of 2024. 

Given the market, there may be some good opportunities for buyers through the winter months. 

For those people who can only buy a home subject to selling their current home the next half year may be their best opportunity to do so.  If the experts are correct about pent up demand just waiting for interest rates to come down, once interest rate drops are announced it may get much more difficult to buy a home subject to selling. 

If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell a home (anywhere in the province) and need help don't hesitate to call, txt or email.?  My door is always open. 

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October Market Snapshot

Market Bounces Back

Items of Note for October:

  • 139 Unit Sales - Up from September's abysmal 98 sales, but the North Okanagan is still seeing below average sales brought in part by high interest rates and affordability challenges. 
  • Active Listings are finally back to normal - currently only 3% below the 10 Year Average   
  • The North Okanagan is back in a Balanced Market.


Unit Sales October's 139 Unit Sales was up 14% from last year (122) and up 42% from September (98), but we do need to keep these numbers in perspective. September sales were hampered by wildfires and travel bans.  And if you look back to 2022 you will see that North Okanagan October sales were well below average.  So, while sales did made a nice rebound, October's 139 sales is still 19 below the 10 year average of 171.

Median Sales Price

  • Oct Median Selling Price was $631,500.  $595,000.  That is up significantly from Sept's $595,000 and 6% from Oct 2022 ($597,450).


Benchmark Price for Single Family homes and Townhomes rebound after 3 months of decline.

  • Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in Oct was up 3.7% from Sept ($755,400 vs $728,100) and up 4.7% year-over-year ($721,500).  2023 Benchmark prices for Single Family homes peaked in June at $785,800 and have been on a slow decline since.
  • Townhome prices also rebounded with a 2.7% increase from September ($564,700 vs $549,800) and were up 1% from 2022 ($558,800).  The Benchmark Price for Townhomes peaked in June at $600,400.
  • Condo prices were up 7.6% from Sept ($345,800 vs 321,500) and up from 2022 (306,600)

The number of Active Listings is up 24% from 2022 (838 vs 674) and is only 3% below the 10 year average of 865.

New Listings hitting the market were almost unchanged Year-over-Year (223 vs 221) which is about 9% over the 10 year average (205).

The overall North Okanagan market moved back into a Balanced Market after entering a Buyer's market in Sept.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 17% (up from 11% in Sept). Between 12-25% is considered a Balanced Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 62% (up from 37% in Sept).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average is a low 56 days.  This is down from 70 in Sept and 59 in Oct 2022.


Central Okanagan

While Oct sales rebounded somewhat in the North Okanagan the Central Okanagan was not as lucky. 
Sales continued to be slow in the Central Okanagan as well.  October's 263 Unit Sales is 40% below the 10-year-average of 439 for Oct. If you recall last month sales were 43% below the 10-year-average.

Sept saw 761 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10-year-average of 674. 

And the 2463 current Active Listings is 21% above the 10 year average of 2030.

With a Sales to Active Listings ratio of 11% and Sales to New Listings ratio of 35% the Central OK remains in a Buyer's Market.  

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,025,700 which is up 2% from Sept ($1,006,300).
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes decreased 3%, while Condo prices increased 7.5% from Sept.

Conclusion

Oct brought a nice rebound in sales after a very slow September.  However the overall trend is still one of a slowing market - especially as we head into what is traditionally the slowest four months of the year for sales. 

Prices, like sales, made a bit of a rebound from September, but overall prices have softened a bit since early summer.  

Given that inventory is finally back where it should be and with slower than average sales we should expect the market to remain fairly flat until spring or until we start to hear of possible interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.  Speculation right now is that we shouldn't expect any cuts until the latter part of 2024. 

Fixed rate mortgages continue to bounce around with bond prices but the trend lately has seen bond prices declining so it may be a good time to keep your eyes on fixed rate mortgages as they trend downward (for now).

Given the market, there may be some good opportunities for buyers through the winter months. 

And for those people who can only buy a home subject to selling their current home this may be the best time to get into the market.  If demand is as pent up as the experts say, once it looks like interest rates are ready to come down it may be too late to buy subject to selling. 
  

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Sept Market Snapshot

OUCH!  A Slowing Market and Forest Fires Hit Market Hard

Items of Note for September:

  • Only 98 Unit Sales - If we go back all the way to 2002 the only Sept with lower sales was in 2008 (88).
  • Active Listings are finally getting back to normal - only 8% below the 10 Year Average   
  • The overall North Okanagan market entered into a Buyers Market.


Unit Sales With only 98 Unit Sales Sept was down 18% from last year (120) and was 42% below the 10 Year Average of 169 Unit Sales.  Sept sales were also down significantly from Aug sales (98 vs146).  And if we go back all the way to 2002 the only Sept with lower sales was in 2008 (88).

Median Sales Price

  • Sept Median Selling Price was $595,000.  That is up slightly from Aug's $592,500 but down 3% from Sept 2022 ($615,000).


Benchmark Price for Single Family homes and Townhomes down 3 months in a row .

  • Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in Sept was down 4.5% from Aug ($728,100 vs $763,100) and down slightly from 2022 ($728,100). 
  • Townhome prices were down 4.6% from Aug ($549,800 vs $576,400).  The $549,800 is lower then the previous 21 month low of $551,100 in January (which seems highly questionable based on current selling prices so possibly a misprint).
  • Condo prices were down 8% from Aug ($321,500 vs 350,400) and down slightly from 2022 ($321,500)

The number of Active Listings is up 25% from 2022 (903 vs 720) and is only 8% below the 10 year average of 982.

New Listings hitting the market were up 19% Year-over-Year (268 vs 225) and up 11% over the 10 year average (242).

The overall North Okanagan market has slipped into a Buyer's Market.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 11% (down from 17% in Aug). Between 12-25% is considered a Balanced Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 37% (down from 56% in Aug).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average is a low 70 days.  While this is up from 59 in Aug and 48 in Sept 2022 the Days to Sell average is still quite low historically.


Central Okanagan

Sales continued to be slow in the Central Okanagan as well.  Sept's 264 Unit Sales is 43% below the 10 year average of 465 for Sept.  Both Sept and Aug saw10-year lows for Unit Sales for their respective months.

Sept saw 956 New Listings hit the market (a ten year high for the month of Sept) which is 22% above the 10 year average of 785. 

And the 2516 current Active Listings is 14% above the 10 year average of 2214.

With a Sales to Active Listings ratio of 10% and Sales to New Listings ratio of 28% the Central OK is in a Buyer's Market.  

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,006,300 which is down 6% from Aug ($1,068,600).
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes decreased 3%, while Condo prices decreased 8% from August.

Conclusion

September brought very slow sales and plenty of new listings.  In the North Okanagan that translated into Active Listing levels almost getting back to normal (which has been a long time coming).  And the Benchmark Price for Single Family homes continued to soften since peaking in June (down about 7%). 

In the Central Okanagan the number of Active Listings is well above average while Single Family home prices finally cooled down after being in the $1,050,000 - $1,070,000 range since April.

How much were September numbers influenced by all the wildfires in the area?  The market had been slowing down since June, however it does appear that wildfires, smoke and travel bans to Okanagan likely had a major impact on the real estate market.  October should give us a better understanding of how much of the slow down were market driven and how much was due to fires.


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July Market Snapshot

After a Strong June Sales Slow in July

Items of Note for July:

  • Unit sales slow down considerably from June (152 vs 210).  July 2023 hits 10 year low for July unit sales.  Unit Sales 26% below the 10 year average (205).
  • Median Sales Price up 3% year-over-year but down from June 2023.
  • Benchmark Sales Price for Single Family homes, Townhomes and Condos all down slightly from June 2023.
  • The overall North Okanagan market back into a Balanced Market.


Unit Sales With only 152 Unit Sales July was 26% below the 10 Year Average of 205 Unit Sales.  And the 152 Unit Sales for the month is a 10 year low for July sales.

Median Sales Prices for the overall North Okanagan market was up year-over-year but was down slightly from June.  

  • July Median Selling Price $637,000.  That is down from June's $649,950.  It is the lowest Median Selling Price since March 2023.


Benchmark Price for Single Family homes finally sees a small decline after increasing every month since January .

  • Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in July was $778,300 - Down 1% from $785,800 in June.
  • At $342,100 the Benchmark Price for Condos decreased 3% from June ($354,100). 
  • Townhomes decreased less then half a percent from June. ($598,300 vs $600,400) 
     

The number of Active Listings is up 16% from 2022 (839 vs 722) but the number is still historically low and currently sits about 19% below the 10 year average of 1037 active listings for July. 

New Listings hitting the market were down 12% Year-over-Year (267 vs 302) and sits about 9% below the 10 year average of 295.

The overall North Okanagan market is now back into a Balanced Market after briefly moving into a Sellers Market in June.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 18% (down from 26% in June). Above 20-25% is considered a Sellers Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 56% (down from 67% in June).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average remains unchanged at a low 55 days.


Central Okanagan

Sales slowed down in the Central Okanagan as well.  July's 408 Unit Sales is 23% below the 10 year average of 527 for July.  It was also a significant drop from June's 504 sales.

June saw 995 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10 year average of 882.  And the 2446 Active Listings, is 4% above the 10 year average of 2346.  So the Central Okanagan continues to be one of the few areas that of hasn't really been effected by low inventory levels.

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,063,700 which is unchanged from June
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes Benchmark Prices dropped 2% while Condos dropped just over 3%.

Conclusion

After a strong June for sale figures it appears that July has taken some wind out of the sails (sales).  June is typically the strongest month for sales so seeing a decline month-to-month from here to the end of the year should not come as a surprise. 

It does appear that price increases have flattened out the past couple months.

The key numbers moving forward, for the North Okanagan, is how much below the 10 year average sales and new listings remain and what effect this has on prices. 

And also what happens with interest rates (up, down or unchanged) as we move through the second half of the year.

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If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell and need help don't hesitate to call, txt or email.?  My door is always open.

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2023 First Half Recap

Sales stats thru the first half of 2023 illustrate how resilient the North Okanagan real estate market has been.

Even though the Unit Sales and Sales Dollar Volume are way down compared to the same time frame last year, the market continues to surprise, as we have seen a 20% increase in the Median Sale Price since the start of the year.

So what about all that noise we were hearing last year, from the “EXPERTS”, who were saying it was a bad time to buy a home?  Hmmmm

So looking forward, is it still/now a bad time to buy?  Especially with the interest rate hikes we have seen recently.  Obviously a lot depends on your financial situation and affordability etc. But if you can get into the market and don’t plan on making a move for a number of years the odds of prices being up compared to down are pretty damn good.

There is risk in every market.  But there can be reward in every market.


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