After a Strong June Sales Slow in July

Items of Note for July:

• Unit sales slow down considerably from June (152 vs 210).  July 2023 hits 10 year low for July unit sales.  Unit Sales 26% below the 10 year average (205).
• Median Sales Price up 3% year-over-year but down from June 2023.
• Benchmark Sales Price for Single Family homes, Townhomes and Condos all down slightly from June 2023.
• The overall North Okanagan market back into a Balanced Market.

Unit Sales With only 152 Unit Sales July was 26% below the 10 Year Average of 205 Unit Sales.  And the 152 Unit Sales for the month is a 10 year low for July sales.

Median Sales Prices for the overall North Okanagan market was up year-over-year but was down slightly from June.  

• July Median Selling Price $637,000.  That is down from June's $649,950.  It is the lowest Median Selling Price since March 2023.

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes finally sees a small decline after increasing every month since January .

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in July was $778,300 - Down 1% from $785,800 in June.
• At $342,100 the Benchmark Price for Condos decreased 3% from June ($354,100). 
• Townhomes decreased less then half a percent from June. ($598,300 vs $600,400) 
   

The number of Active Listings is up 16% from 2022 (839 vs 722) but the number is still historically low and currently sits about 19% below the 10 year average of 1037 active listings for July. 

New Listings hitting the market were down 12% Year-over-Year (267 vs 302) and sits about 9% below the 10 year average of 295.

The overall North Okanagan market is now back into a Balanced Market after briefly moving into a Sellers Market in June.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 18% (down from 26% in June). Above 20-25% is considered a Sellers Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 56% (down from 67% in June).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average remains unchanged at a low 55 days.


Central Okanagan

Sales slowed down in the Central Okanagan as well.  July's 408 Unit Sales is 23% below the 10 year average of 527 for July.  It was also a significant drop from June's 504 sales.

June saw 995 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10 year average of 882.  And the 2446 Active Listings, is 4% above the 10 year average of 2346.  So the Central Okanagan continues to be one of the few areas that of hasn't really been effected by low inventory levels.

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,063,700 which is unchanged from June
The Benchmark Price for Townhomes Benchmark Prices dropped 2% while Condos dropped just over 3%.

Conclusion

After a strong June for sale figures it appears that July has taken some wind out of the sails (sales).  June is typically the strongest month for sales so seeing a decline month-to-month from here to the end of the year should not come as a surprise. 

It does appear that price increases have flattened out the past couple months.

The key numbers moving forward, for the North Okanagan, is how much below the 10 year average sales and new listings remain and what effect this has on prices. 

And also what happens with interest rates (up, down or unchanged) as we move through the second half of the year.

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If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell and need help don't hesitate to call, txt or email.?  My door is always open.

Sales stats thru the first half of 2023 illustrate how resilient the North Okanagan real estate market has been.

Even though the Unit Sales and Sales Dollar Volume are way down compared to the same time frame last year, the market continues to surprise, as we have seen a 20% increase in the Median Sale Price since the start of the year.

So what about all that noise we were hearing last year, from the “EXPERTS”, who were saying it was a bad time to buy a home?  Hmmmm

So looking forward, is it still/now a bad time to buy?  Especially with the interest rate hikes we have seen recently.  Obviously a lot depends on your financial situation and affordability etc. But if you can get into the market and don’t plan on making a move for a number of years the odds of prices being up compared to down are pretty damn good.

There is risk in every market.  But there can be reward in every market.

June Sees Strong Sales in North Okanagan

Items of Note for June:

• Home Sales Surge - after a sluggish spring market the summer market kicks off with a bang as sales almost hit the 10 year average for first time since February. 
• Prices continues to rise - Single Family Benchmark Prices down only 3% from peak.  Condo Benchmark Price hits new all-time high.
• The overall North Okanagan market entered into a Seller's Market.

Unit Sales With 210 Unit Sales June was only 4% below the 10 Year Average of 219 Unit Sales.  And the 210 Unit Sales was 15% higher then last year's 183 sales (this marks the first time that Year-over-Year sales increased since November 2021).

Average and Median Sales Prices for the overall North Okanagan market were up slightly from May and have been trending upwards since December.  

• June Average Selling Price $708,7606.  Up from $689,626 in May but down from $768,153 last June.
• June Median Selling Price $649,950.  Up slightly from 641,600 in May and virtually the same as last June's $650,000.

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes has increased every month since hitting a low in January.

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in June was $785,800 - Up from $777,600 in May.  The Benchmark price for single family homes has increased 13% since bottoming out in January ($696,500).  $785,800 is the highest the Benchmark price for single family homes has been since June 2022 ($798,500) and is only 2.7% below the peak price in May 2022* ($807,600).
• At $354,100 the Benchmark Price for Condos broke an all-time high.  The previous high was $353,400 in April 2022*.   
  
  *The formula to determine Benchmark Price was changed in June 2022.

The number of Active Listings is up 22% from 2022 (815 vs 666) but the number is still historically low and currently sits about 21% below the 10 year average of 1035 active listings for June. 

New Listings hitting the market were down 12% Year-over-Year (315 vs 359) but were only about 8% below the 10 year average of 341.

The overall North Okanagan market has now entered Seller's Market territory.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 26% (up from 22% in May). Above 20-25% is considered a Sellers Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is .67% (up from 51% in May).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average remains low remains low at 55 days.

Overall, the North Okanagan market continues to be quite resistant.  The market for single family homes in the lower price ranges has really heated up.  But we are seeing sales across all price ranges and property types.  The big question is how will interest rates - if they continue to rise - effect sales and prices as we head into the dog days of summer?


Central Okanagan

Junes 504 Unit Sales were only 10% below the 10 year average of 563 for June and were 31% above last year's 386 sales.  However, sales did drop 9% from May's 556 sales. 

June saw 1142 New Listings hit the market which is 13% above the 10 year average of 1008.  And the 2284 Active Listings, is only 2% below the 10 year average of 2336.  So the Central Okanagan continues to be one of the few areas that of hasn't really been effected by low inventory levels.

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,063,800 which is down slightly from May's $1,048,900 and 6% below the April 2022* peak price of $1,131,800. 
Townhome Benchmark Prices were the second highest on record - only trailing May 2022* ($785,900 vs $829,800).

*The formula to determine Benchmark Price was changed in June 2022.


Interest Rates

July 12 is the date for the next Bank of Canada announcement on interest rates and the betting money is that rates will increase another 0.25% at that time - taking the overnight rate to 5% which would be a new 22 year high.

If rates do rise again will that be the be enough to slow down home sales?  And probably more to the point, will increased rates be enough to slow down rising home prices?  

Stay tuned.

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New Listings Finally Arrive but Continued Sluggish Sales

Items of Note for May:

• New Listings Arrive - The 352 New Listings in May is only 2% below the 10 year average of 361.  A welcome relief after well below average New Listings hitting the market since February.
• Continued Sluggish Home Sales - the only May with fewer Unit Sales in the past 10 years was 2020. 
• The overall North Okanagan market is currently in a Balanced Market.
• Single Family Home prices continue to rise.  The Benchmark Price for detached Single Family homes continues upwards - Up 11.6% since January.

Unit Sales With 179 Unit Sales May was16% below the 10 Year Average of 213 Unit Sales.  Year-to-Date Unit Sales are 22% below the 10 Year Average (610 vs 785).  May thru August are, on average, the months that see the most sales so the next few months should go a long way to determine what sales for the year will look like.  

Average and Median Sales Prices for the overall North Okanagan market dropped from April numbers.  But the overall trend has been moving upwards since December.  

• May Average Selling Price $689,626.  Down from $726,274 in April and down from $727,925 last May.
• May Median Selling Price $641,600.  Down from 646,750 in April and down from $671,500 last May.

Benchmark Price for Single Family homes has increased every month since hitting a low in January.

• Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in May was $777,600 - Up from $764,400 in April.  The Benchmark price for single family homes has increased 11.6% since bottoming out in January ($696,500 vs $777,600).  $777,600 is the highest the Benchmark price for single family homes has been since June 2022 ($798,500) and is only 3.7% below the peak price in May 2022 ($807,600)

The number of Active Listings continues to rise (+43% from 2022) overall, but it is still historically low.  Back in January it looked like we were on our way back up to normal inventory levels but with three months (Feb, March, April) of well below average new listings hitting the market inventory remained about 22% below the 10 year average thru April.  With the uptick in New Listings coming out in May inventory did improve, and currently sits about 19% below the 10 year average for the month of May (799 actual vs 995).

Overall we are currently in a Balanced Market.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio is 22% (up from 21% in March). Above 20-25% is considered a Sellers Market.
The Sales to New Listing ratio is 43% (down from 54% in March).  Between 40-60% is considered a Balanced Market.

Days to Sell Average remains low remains low at 59 days.  While sales may be slow buyers are quick to act on homes that are priced correctly.  There are motivated buyers in the market - just not a lot of them.

So, overall the North Okanagan market continues to be quite resistant.  The market for single family homes in the lower price ranges has really heated up.  But we are seeing sales across all price ranges and property types.


Central Okanagan

Overall Year-to-Date Unit Sales are down in the Central Okanagan approx18.5% over the 10-year average (1829 vs 2246).  However, sales did rebound nicely in May coming in less then 5% below the 10 year average (556 vs 584) making May the first "decent" month of sales of the year for the Central Okanagan.

Year-to-Date New Listings are only 3% below the 10 year average (4072 vs 4197).

With 2072 Active Listings, the Central Okanagan is only 7% below the 10 year average of 2230 Active Listings for the month of May.

The Benchmark Price for Single Family homes in the Central Okanagan is currently $1,048,900 which is down slightly from April's $1,051,100 and 7% below the April 2022 peak price of $1,131,800.


Interest Rates

The big news is the Bank of Canada announcement and how this may affect the housing market moving into the second half of the year.  We may see an initial surge in sales as people who are pre-approved take advantage of the lower rate.  On the other end of the spectrum we may see would be buyers pull out of the market as the uncertainty around interest rates is, again, going to play a key role in real estate markets.

I've been talking about a possible Dead Cat Bounce the past couple months.  Given this latest interest rate hike we may finally see that happen.  Add to that a dry, smoky summer and...

Stay tuned.

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If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell and need help don't hesitate to call, txt or email.?  My door is always open. 

Slow Sales but Rising Prices

Items of Note for April:

• Slow Home Sales - the only April with fewer Unit Sales in the past 10 years was 2020.
• No New Listings - since 2003 the only years with fewer New Listings hitting the market were 2003 & 2020.
• Currently in a Balanced Market but close to becoming a Sellers Market.
• Selling Price continue to trend upwards.

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